Istat: economic downturn in non-EU foreign trade

As of October 2022, a cyclical decrease is estimated for trade with non-EU27 countries for both flows, larger for imports (-8.7 percent) than for exports (-4.3 percent).

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The latest data Istat relating to non-EU foreign trade indicate a cyclical decline that, although generalized, is more than half due to the decline in sales of capital goods. For imports, the cyclical decline is almost entirely due to the contraction in energy purchases (-19.5 percent). The cyclical contraction in energy purchases reflects declining volumes and prices of natural gas in its gaseous state and declines in electricity prices. Year-on-year, growth in both exports (+16.6 percent, from +27.2 percent in September) and imports (+38.3 percent; was +59.0 percent in September) slowed.

However, the energy deficit narrows when compared with September, when it was over 12 billion in absolute value, and contributes to the narrowing of the trade deficit (2 billion in absolute value, compared with 5 billion in September).

As of October 2022, a cyclical decrease is estimated for trade with non-EU 27 countries for both flows, larger for imports (-8.7 percent) than for exports (-4.3 percent).

In the August-October 2022 quarter, compared with the previous quarter, exports decreased by 1.5 percent due to lower sales of energy (-37.9 percent) and capital goods (-4.7 percent). In the same period, imports show a cyclical increase of 4.6 percent, contributed by higher purchases of capital goods (+10.5 percent), energy (+7.9 percent) and non-durable consumer goods (+6.8 percent).

In October 2022, exports grew year-on-year by 16.6 percent. The growth, which is widespread, is most pronounced for energy (+37.0%), intermediate goods (+24.7%) and non-durable consumer goods (+22.1%). Imports show a trend growth of 38.3%, also widespread and very high for energy (+67.2%). In the same period, the trade deficit with non-EU countries is -2,040 million, compared with a surplus of 1,962 million in the same month of 2021. The energy deficit (-9,364 million) is wider than a year earlier (-5,459 million) , but the surplus in the interchange of non-energy products, at 7,324 million, is high and on the level of October 2021 (7,421 million).

The countries to which we export and from which we import

Year-on-year increases in exports to almost all major non-EU27 partner countries are noted in October 2022; the largest are in Turkey (+47.7%), the United States (+34.2%) and OPEC countries (+32.0%). The decline in exports to Russia (-30.9%) continues; sales to Japan (-11.2%) are also down.

Purchases from ASEAN countries (+64.5 percent), MERCOSUR countries (+59.4 percent), Switzerland (+58.0 percent), the United States (+56.5 percent), OPEC countries (+55.9 percent) and China (+50.3 percent) show very high trend increases. Imports from Russia (-44.2%) are in sharp decline.


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