by Laura Reggiani |
The outlook for electronics and semiconductors in 2022 is uncertain. Just as the world was returning to more normal conditions after the worst of the Covid-19 pandemic had passed, Russia invaded Ukraine in late February. As the International Monetary Fund, the Russian invasion of Ukraine will have a significant impact on the global economy, which will manifest itself in three ways:
- High energy and other commodity prices will reduce demand;
- the trade and supply chains of Ukraine's neighbouring countries will be disrupted;
- investor uncertainty will tighten financial conditions.
Electronic production in Eastern countries
According to data collected by Semiconductor Intelligence, the major Asian electronics manufacturing countries have long since emerged from the pandemic and returned to normal growth. South Korea, which had suffered minimal slowdowns even in times of pandemic, is back even stronger, driven by an average quarterly growth rate of over 20%; China has resumed its pre-pandemic growth rates of between 12% and 13%; Taiwan, also little affected by Covid, is growing at rates of 13%; Vietnam decreased its electronics production in autumn 2021 due to pandemic-related shutdowns, but returned to growth at the beginning of the year; Japan, which recorded a 10% drop in production at the end of 2021 as a result of the pandemic recovery, is continuing a long-term slowdown in electronics production, caused by shifts to low-cost Asian labour countries.
Electronic production in Western countries
The growth of US electronics production in the last months of last year was between 4% and 5%, thus above the pre-pandemic range. The 27 countries of the European Union, on the other hand, showed a 14% decline in January 2022, after experiencing robust growth of between 30% and 40% in the first half of 2021. In addition to the effects of the pandemic, the EU benefited from a post-Brexit shift in production from the UK; the UK has seen a steady decline in electronics production over the last three years, except for growth due to the post-pandemic recovery.
The full article is published in issue 14 of Elettronica AV
