The year 2020 will be remembered in the annals of the history of Italian electronics as the worst of all time. According to data released byIstat, the Italian technology industry represented by Anie Federation will close 2020 with a cumulative decrease in industrial activity levels of 9.6%.
It is the second worst result of the last twenty years after the collapse recorded in 2009. The marked decline is common to the two macro areas but is more accentuated in Electronics (-13.3%) than in Electrotechnics (-8.9%). The gradual recovery that took place in the last quarter of 2020 did not in fact offset the losses in industrial activity levels in the first part of the year. The 10.9% drop in the first quarter of 2020 and the subsequent -26.4% drop in the second quarter represent the most obvious consequence of the spring lockdown, which halted activities with the sole exception of essential ones.
The recovery has already begun
Looking at December 2020 alone, however, in comparison with December 2019, there was a positive trend in industrial production (+5.3%). In the economic comparison - in December 2020 compared to November 2020 - the Electrotechnical and Electronics industry showed a drop in industrial production levels of 0.9%. With reference to expectations for the following months, the recovery seen in December should also be confirmed in January 2021, on the basis of an order book that in the last quarter of 2020 reduced the rate of decline that characterised the previous months. However, the dynamics of the Anie sectors remain strongly linked to an economic context of great uncertainty and highly dependent on the evolution of the pandemic.
The point of view of electronic distribution
Assodel's data on the distribution of electronic components on the Italian market are also aligned. The latest report presented by the association, relating to the fourth quarter of the year, shows a turnover of 275 million euros that drives the entire 2020 towards a consolidated turnover of 1 billion 178 million euros. A value that shows, year on year, a decrease of -10.1% compared to the previous year.
Semiconductors contributed negatively to the overall market decline, with -11.4% and, even more so, systems, which recorded -15%; passive products were less penalised, with a decline limited to -6%.
An orderly that bodes well
Going into detail about the last quarter of the year, at the end of 2020, the ratio of orders to sales (book-to-bill) was exceptional: 1.42 on the total, spread across all three product families. This surge in orders follows the above-unity value (1.12) of the previous quarter and shows signs of a turnaround capable of leading to a positive 2021. Compared to these values, a comment frommarket analyst Livio Azzoni points out that the rising order may partly stem from customer fears of possible imbalances between demand and future material availability.
In general, some distributors are already pushing customers to think about a horizon of up to 2022. Already in the past months, the electronics sector had shown, despite the difficulties, that it was one of the few sectors to record a limited decline compared to the macroeconomic situation and that it had all the cards in order to be able to emerge more quickly from the crisis. The data for the last part of the year confirm that the electronic distribution sector, despite all the difficulties and criticalities, returning to the levels of 2016, is showing a new drive towards potential future growth.
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