by Cleopatra Cats |
How was 2020 for semiconductors? Forecasts made during this "pandemic" time period by leading market analysts have varied ranging from 0% to 10%. IHS Markit, with a 6% forecast made in January 2020, and Semiconductor Intelligence, with a 7% forecast made in February 2020, but also Wsts, with a forecast of 5.9% made in December 2019, are the analysts who have come closest to the reality of the facts. A reality that sees the semiconductor market reach $ 439 billion in 2020 and realize a growth on 2019 of 6.5%.
As the severity of the pandemic only became apparent in late March 2020, analysts drastically lowered their expectations, some even predicting double-digit declines. It wasn't until the mid-2020s, however, that it became apparent that the semiconductor industry would not be as affected by the pandemic as other sectors, and most projections thus shifted back toward positive single-digit growth, such as the 5.5% growth made by Semiconductor Intelligence in November 2020.
Fourth quarter data
According to Wsts, the semiconductor market in Q4 2020 grew 3.5% globally compared to the previous quarter. In fact, the major semiconductor companies in Q4 reported revenue growth: Qualcomm 's revenues were up 32% over Q3, STMicroelectronics, Amd and Nxp Semiconductors reported double-digit growth, while Intel, Texas Instruments and Infineon reported high single-digit growth. On the other hand, Micron declined, reporting a 4.7% drop in revenue. When considered in local currency, three companies(Samsung, SK Hynix and MediaTek) reported revenue declines, but still increased revenues when converted to U.S. dollars.
The outlook for 2021
What is the outlook for the semiconductor market this year? The three key factors to consider at this stage are related to the smartphone, PC and vehicle markets. Smartphone sales are down 11% in 2020, mainly due to pandemic-related manufacturing delays; Gartner predicts 11% growth in smartphone sales in 2021 as manufacturing returns to normal and new 5G models spur consumer demand.
Instead, PC sales rose 11% in 2020 as more people had to use PCs to do their work, learn or entertain themselves during the pandemic; Idc predicts that PCs will return to more normal 1% growth in 2021.
In contrast, light vehicle production fell sharply, by 17%, in 2020 due to pandemic-related production delays and caution from automakers; IHS Markit forecasts a strong rebound in light vehicle production of 14% in 2021 for the automotive sector.
Automotive is becoming an increasingly important market for semiconductors anyway; IHS Markit estimates the automotive chip market at around $40 billion. The average semiconductor content per vehicle is in fact about $500, far more important than the $100 of a smartphone and the roughly $200 of a PC. Cars also contain a much wider range of semiconductor products including controllers, memories, mixed-signal ICs, power devices and sensors. However, the automotive market is currently experiencing several shortages of many semiconductor devices; the reduction in automobile production in the early 2020s has led some semiconductor companies to focus on devices for other applications.
Themost recent forecasts for the semiconductor market for the current year in any case show prospects for significant growth; they range from the conservative +4.1% of Cowan (who bases his forecasts on past trends) to the more than positive +18% of Future Horizons (the eternal optimist Malcolm Penn). And since "in medio stat virtus" it is likely that the market will close 2021 with a growth between 11% and 12%, or maybe even better, as predicted by Semiconductor Intelligence, which reconfirms its forecast of 14% growth.
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