Assolombarda: in 2021 the recovery will be conditioned by several factors

Assolombarda expects a cautious restart in the new year, conditioned by the evolution of the health emergency, the timing of the vaccination plan and the measures to stimulate the economy

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assolombarda pixabay Milan

After the end of 2020, a year that was certainly more difficult than the others for the Lombardy production system Assolombarda sees for the region, with the new year, a cautious restart, conditioned by the evolution of the health emergency, the timing of the vaccination plan and the measures to stimulate the economy. Estimates of Prometeia formulated in December 2020 indicate a drop in GDP of -9 .7% for Lombardy and -9.1% forItaly, but also a partial recovery in 2021 of +5.2% for Lombardy and +4.8% forItaly.

Suffering sectors and incentives to restart

Due to the prolonged closures, services related to tourism, catering and retail trade continue to take the hit, as evidenced by the data on business demographics. In 2020, in fact, registrations to the Business Register in Lombardy fell by 18% compared to 2019. More in detail, the deterioration has affected to a greater extent the tertiary sector, which has recorded a -35% in accommodation and food services, but alsoindustry(-28%), trade(-16%) and construction(-14%). It is therefore not surprising that the climate of confidence in the North West in January has fallen, both on the business side and on the consumer side, whose short-term prospects remain rather cautious due to the current and future economic climate. But there is also good news: in order to cope with the crisis and support Lombardy businesses during this difficult time, there has been an acceleration in disbursements to them. In the data updated to September 2020, theoverall increase in loans is +6.3% on an annual basis, particularly in services(+8.8%) and manufacturing(+7.2%).

Mobility and CIG

Other data come from the monitoring of the parameters of mobility and hours of redundancy payments. In the movements, at the beginning of 2021 there is an overall mobility closer to pre-Covid normality, but in fact still very reduced, especially with regard to travel to workplaces, also due to the widespread use of Smart Working. In the Lombardy average, at the end of January 2021 there was a -28% of mobility compared to before the pandemic, as well as Monza Brianza (-28%) and Lodi (-27%), but also Pavia (-23%). In Milan, however, the gap is wider(-35%): in the municipality remains very low use of the metro (-70% on average in January) against a more pronounced resumption of the entries of vehicles in Area B and C, which although are lower than a year ago (respectively -10% and -27% in the second half of January 2021). With regard to the layoff fund, between November and December 2020 in Lombardy there was a decrease compared to the high levels of October. However, in 2020 the use of the social security cushion in the region amounted to 716 million hours, more than double the annual peak in 2010. In particular, the number of CIG hours authorised was 247 million in Milan, 65 million in Monza, 12 million in Lodi and 20 million in Pavia.


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