The effects of restrictions on the regional economy according to Assolombarda

Assolombarda released data on the effects of 'red zone' restrictions on the region's economy

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Milan Assolombarda pixabay

According to the new booklet by Assolombardapublished on Genioeimpresa.it, the latest measures adopted to contain the contagions have had various repercussions on the economy: the new wave of contagions and the restrictions introduced by the Prime Ministerial Decree of 3 November have abruptly interrupted the slow recovery that had seemed to have gripped the country since May. In fact, as a result of the closures and restrictions adopted, the first signs of a deterioration in Italy's economic activity could be observed from the end of October . There are three main factors to be considered with regard to the short-term economic outlook: the particularly restrictive measures in Lombardy 's "red zone", the lockdowns activated by its main European trading partners, and the confidence of businesses and consumers. For Lombardy, the lockdown is estimated to mean a loss of over 1% on regional GDP and at least -0.3 percentage points on national GDP in 2020.

The effects on manufacturing output

Moreover, since the epidemiological situation has worsened in countries that are importantexport markets for Italian companies, companies will probably have to deal with a slowdown in international demand. This could affect the economy of Lombardy in particular, where exports account for more than 30% of GDP and about 40% of the turnover of manufacturing companies. It is therefore not surprising that manufacturing confidence is deteriorating in response to theuncertainty linked to the continuing pandemic, considering that already in July and September almost 40% of businesses in the North-West indicated obstacles to production, largely linked to a lack of demand.

The effects on mobility and energy consumption

As for the data on mobility, people's movements returned to the negative area compared to the start of this year: -17% in Lombardy in the survey of 6 November, with agreater intensity in the areas of Milan (-25%) and Monza and Brianza(-22%), more under pressure from the health emergency, and a smaller variation in Lodi (-10%) and Pavia (-6%). In addition, the further adoption of smart working by companies has affected the reduction in travel for work purposes: -38% in Lombardy on 6 November, compared to -22% in mid-October. Light vehicle traffic on Milan's ring roads fell by 27% between 19 and 25 October on a year-on-year basis (from -13% in the first week of the month), while heavy vehicle traffic, indicative of business travel, was 4% lower between 19 and 25 October than a year ago (from -2% in the first week of the month). Passengers on the Milan subways are63% down between 26 and 30 October compared to the beginning of 2020 (from -44%). In the same period, car entries in Area C inthe City of Milan decreased by 23% (from -5%). Electricity consumption at national level, which approximates production activity, has tended to decrease with greater intensity every day since the last DPCM came into force: on an annual basis -2.1%on Friday 6 November, -3.5% on Monday 9 and -6.4% on Tuesday 10.


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