Grant Thornton data on how Italian companies see the future

According to Grant Thornton, economic optimism in Italy in the first six months of the year was down 10% compared to 2019, and only 23% of companies are positive about the recovery in the next 12 months

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pessimism data

For the first six months of the year, the international consulting network Grant Thornton indicates a sharp decline in optimism among Italian companies (-10%) regarding economic expectations for the next 12 months, with only 23% of companies optimistic about the recovery. The Italian performance follows the trend of strong deterioration on a global scale (-16%) that touches the lowest level since the Eurozone crisis of 2011-2012. In Europe, too, optimism declined and, in line with the global figure, fell by 16% compared to the second half of the year, with only 29% of companies positive.

A framework of uncertainty

The general picture of uncertainty reflects a climate of pessimism about companies' future expectations regarding the key factors of economic growth (turnover, profitability and employment). As regards the Italian situation, only 24% of companies expect an increase in revenues over the next 12 months, a sharp drop from the 42% recorded in H2 2019. On the contrary, 40% expect a decrease. Looking at the global average, only 34% expect an increase in revenues, down a good 20 points from H2 2019.

A significant proportion of companies worldwide, 65%, expect that Covid-19 will have a negative impact on revenues in 2020, which will decrease on average by 9.7% due to the effects of the pandemic. In Italy, the forecast scenario does not seem so discouraging, in fact, it is only 2.7% the number of companies that see the impacts of Covid as causing an economic loss of more than 50%; for 11.3% it represents a loss between 20 and 29%, while the largest share, 32.7%, expects a smaller loss, between 1 and 9%. A further 4.7% expect a 10% increase in revenue.

Lack of orders

The current crisis context has led to a sharp spike in economic uncertainty: 66% of companies identify uncertainty as a business constraint. In Italy this figure rises to 68% while in Europe it remains lower at 59%. Among the most limiting factors for growth is also the lack of orders, declared as a constraint by 57% of Italian companies, which is slightly higher than the global figure of 55% (lower than the European figure of 51%). The collapse in demand, high levels of uncertainty and concerns over financial availability are all elements that in equal measure will contribute to reducing investment intentions. In Italy , the number of companies planning to invest in the quality of products and services is decreasing (-18%), with only 29% of companies planning to increase R&D expenditure in the next 12 months. Negative data also on export growth, on which the percentage of optimistic companies has more than halved (from 38% in 2019 to 16% this year).


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