Analysing the most recent data released by Istatthe Italian technology industry, represented by Federazione Anie showed a negative trend in industrial production in December 2019.
In December 2019, in comparison with the same month in 2018, the Italian hi-tech industry in fact recorded a negative change in industrial production of 4.8% (-4.2% the average change in manufacturing).
In a year-on-year comparison, December 2019 compared to November 2019, the sector showed a 3.8% decline in activity levels (-2.4% change in manufacturing). In the average 2019, year-on-year comparison, the Italian Electrical and Electronics industry showed a decline in industrial production of 0.8% (-1.7% the average change in manufacturing).
Anie's concern for 2020
"In the Anie sectors in 2019, the trend in production levels remained below potential. The 2019 balance sheet shows a worrying negative sign, with a cumulative drop in sectoral production of 0.8% (the technology industry, however, did better than manufacturing, which instead saw an annual contraction of 1.7%). In theprevious five-year period, during a phase of progressive expansion of investments linked to new technologies, our sector had driven growth, with an average annual increase in activity levels of 2.5%, compared to the 1.3% average for manufacturing", commented Giuliano Busetto, president of Federazione Anie, who added: "The setback is also confirmed by the SME index for Italian manufacturing companies, which has remained in contraction territory throughout the year. We are also very concerned about 2020 and hope that there will be significant government intervention to resume organic growth in industry, the country's leading sector, as well as in infrastructure".
The 2019 slowdown
The slowdown in the hi-tech sector in the second half of 2018 was confirmed in the first half of 2019, when the sector recorded a 0.6% drop in turnover.
Uncertain prospects also characterised the sector's performance at the end of the year: without definitive data, Anie's estimate for the second half of the year is a drop of almost one percentage point. A weak trend characterised both the domestic and foreign components. The slowdown in foreign demand suffered from the high level of uncertainty in the international scenario, while on the domestic front a critical element was the fluctuating profile of investments, which play an important role as a driver of demand for the hi-tech industry. The downsizing of the order backlog, which had already begun at the end of 2018, continued in the first half of 2019 with a negative trend (-1.9%) that suggests a weaker trend also in 2020.
Trends in end markets
In the end markets, there were differentiated trends. Industry, which has played a leading role in growth in the past, showed mixed indications in 2019; the fluctuating profile shown during the year by the investment cycle continues to reflect on this trend.
In an uncertain context, in the building market among companies there is a prevailing share of those indicating a substantial stability in demand in 2019, a trend that is part of a longer-term phase characterised by a slow and modest revival of construction investments in the country.
Indications of stability also continue to prevail in the rail and electrified infrastructure market, while in theenergy market, indications of the evolution of domestic demand in 2019 show polarised trends between crisis and recovery.